Financial markets—specifically derivatives—contain information about the range of probable future short-term interest rates.

Financial markets—specifically derivatives—contain information about the range of probable future short-term interest rates. The information from this statistical distribution can help measure the ...

Profiles: Google Scholar Working Papers The Crowding-In Effects of Local Government Debt in China 2024-35 | with X. Li, Peng, and Xu | November 2024 abstract We study how changes in the composition of ...

Profiles: Google Scholar | RePEc | SSRN Working Papers Snow Belt to Sun Belt Migration: End of an Era? 2024-21 | with Wilson | July 2024 abstract Internal migration has been cited as a key channel by ...

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...

The extent to which either supply or demand factors drive inflation has important implications for economic policy. I propose a framework to decompose inflation into supply- and demand-driven ...

An enduring consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic is a notable shift toward remote and hybrid work. This has raised questions regarding whether the shift had a significant effect on the growth rate of ...

The results suggest that future changes in climate will increase exposure to extreme heat for outdoor workers in the United States. The number of days above 25°C for these workers rises substantially ...

Working Papers Productivity in the World Economy During and After the Pandemic 2023-29 | with Fernald | September 2023 abstract This paper reviews how productivity has evolved around the world since ...

Download PDF (pdf, 1.0 mb) Download Chart Data (Excel document, 130 kb) Summary The 2019 Diary of Consumer Payment Choice (Diary) highlights findings from the fifth Diary study conducted by the ...

Temporary layoffs accounted for essentially the entire increase in unemployment to its historically high rate in April 2020. Although the rate has come down since its peak, unemployment remains well ...